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Albemarle to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

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Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Feb. 12.

See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

The company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters while beating once. In this timeframe, it delivered a negative earnings surprise of 107.8%, on average. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 400% in the last reported quarter. ALB is likely to have benefited from healthy lithium volumes and its cost and productivity actions in the fourth quarter amid headwinds from softer lithium market prices.

ALB’s shares have lost 30.6% over a year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 3.2% rise.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for ALB Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Albemarle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for ALB is +13.62%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 49 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ALB currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

What Do ALB’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for Albemarle for the to-be-reported quarter stands at $1,376.4 million, reflecting a decline of around 41.6% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for net sales for the Energy Storage unit for the fourth quarter is pegged at $737.9 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 55.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sale for the Specialties unit is pinned at $341.8 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 0.6%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales for the Ketjen unit stands at $300.1 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 12.1%.

Factors to Watch for ALB Stock

Albemarle is likely to have benefited from higher volumes in its lithium business in the quarter to be reported. The ramp-up of lithium projects and plant productivity improvements are expected to have supported volumes. The La Negra expansion in Chile and the processing plant in Qinzhou, China are likely to have contributed to volumes.  

The benefits of ALB’s cost-saving, pricing and productivity initiatives are expected to get reflected in the December quarter. Its cost and productivity actions are expected to have supported margins in the quarter. Efforts to drive operating efficiency and improve the utilization of raw materials are likely to have aided the company’s performance.

During the third quarter of 2024, ALB made progress with the earlier announced comprehensive review of its cost and operating structure. It expects the annual run-rate cost savings related to the comprehensive review to be in the range of $300-$400 million driven by the elimination of redundancies, lower management layers, productivity benefits and optimized manufacturing costs. The projected savings are in addition to cost savings of more than $100 million announced and executed in 2024.

Weaker lithium market prices are likely to have impacted the company’s performance. Lithium prices have declined amid slowing demand growth for electric vehicles, inventory glut and increased supply from China. Weaker lithium prices are likely to have hurt the company’s results in the fourth quarter.

Albemarle Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Albemarle Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Albemarle Corporation price-eps-surprise | Albemarle Corporation Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb. 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.06% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for DD’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 98 cents.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +1.70% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for CF’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.49.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +17.02%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 24 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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